For anyone whose income amount or payment date changes
Use recent median income, recurring payments, and confirmed plans. Treat unusually strong months as extra capacity rather than the new permanent baseline.
Plan from a conservative baseline
Use recent median income, recurring payments, and confirmed plans. Treat unusually strong months as extra capacity rather than the new permanent baseline.
Scenarios are not available money
Separate confirmed, likely, and uncertain income. The basic budget should remain sustainable without the uncertain layer.
Worked example
Three income scenarios
A conservative scenario covers essential expenses; higher scenarios decide how quickly reserves and goals can grow.
Conservative income95,000 ₽
Expected income145,000 ₽
Essential expenses82,000 ₽
Minimum reserve contribution13,000 ₽
The baseline remains viable even if the higher-income scenario does not happen.
Practical method
Use a range, not one optimistic number
Plan essentials from the conservative scenario and distribute additional income only after it arrives.
Formula
Conservative baseline = median recent income adjusted for confirmed changes
A longer and more consistent history improves the estimate.
Calculator
Estimate a conservative income baseline
Enter recent income values and compare the baseline with essential expenses.
Values are calculated only in your browser and are not submitted anywhere.
